Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
